The will they or won’t they of Liberal leadership spilling speculation gathers steam. However, it seems more a case of when they will officially announce a leadership challenge, The contenders are allegedly canvassing numbers and leadership aspirant Andrew Hastie has reportedly secured his wife’s approval to go after the leadership of the federal Liberal Party.

The likely leadership challenge has been precipitated largely by the split in the coalition, and it has again triggered an existential crisis within the Liberal Party in Canberra. At the moment, the only reported candidates are of the right side of the Liberal Party and they will seek to topple Sussan Ley from the ever-dwindling moderate faction of the party.

It is often said that elections in Australia are won from the centre or so-called sensible centre. This is largely true. However, there have been circumstances where this has not been entirely accurate, including Tony Abbott’s win and John Howard after Tampa in 2001.

The political environment today, with economic uncertainty and safety concerns means that, on the face of it, it is not completely impossible. This is so, even with such a large deficit of seats, and a split between the Liberal and National Parties which does not yet have an end date.

However, even if an election can be won from the right, it has been shown by history that it has its limits. Therefore, such a move is not an advisable long-term political strategy, particularly with a broadly younger Australian electorate. This is because voting based on anger and uncertainty is an immediate emotional reaction to circumstances and events. Once this wears off, it is often found that very little benefit has actually arisen from making such choices.

Despite this, because more and more moderates have and will continue to leave the Liberal Party, it is likely that into the future, the conservatives will have the loudest and most successful voice in terms of leadership and direction. What that means will be something to watch.