Carbon pricing is happening, it’s been legislated and that legislation has commenced. The fixed price period began almost two months ago now, on July the 1st. But today things have moved forward as far as the floating price, the emissions trading scheme which will commence in just under 3 years time after the fixed price period ends. The Australian Government has today announced that they’ve reached an agreement with the European Union to link their respective schemes which means Australia joins with 30 other nations in a common market for carbon credits.
But there’s also been a step backwards from existing Labor Party carbon pricing policy, there will no longer be a floor price, that’s gone as part of the pact with the EU linking Australia and European Union countries. This new market, though heavily regulated, will be the largest carbon market in the world, but by no means does it cover anywhere near the majority of the globe and its population. The European ETS covers just over 500 million people and Australia will add a further 22 million people living under the carbon market.
For the first 3 years of the emissions trading scheme, Australians will have access to European carbon credits but not vice versa. European businesses being able to purchase carbon credits in Australia will be allowed to occur from 2018.
Aside from the broken promise over the carbon price, the biggest point of contention since the decision was made in minority government to pursue the carbon price was over the floor price.
The floor price was instituted by the government supposedly to provide certainty to business and to avoid the price of emissions becoming too low. This price was to be set at $15 per tonne from 2015 when the market-based trading scheme will start. We were told, just as recently as last week that the floor price would happen, though reports had surfaced that the ALP were considering backing away from this element of their climate change policy.
Essentially now, the common market with the European Union will determine the price, any price it likes, and if the EU example is an indication, that price has the potential to go quite low, well and truly under the $29 per tonne that the Treasury modelling banks on for the year 2015-16. This means the revenue projections are surely under serious threat.
But Greg Combet doesn’t think so. The Climate Change Minister today said that the long-term average over the past 4 years of the European ETS has been $23 per tonne of carbon emissions. But whether that’s enough to achieve an effective price of $29 in 2015-16 alone is fanciful. This is especially so with a European economic community in chaos financially, a common market that has seen their permits go as low as single digits per tonne of carbon emissions.
Worse still, this backdown on the floor price is in effect an admission that the Gillard Government was wrong with its legislated policy direction. Rightly or wrongly, it will be construed as the government admitting that a floor price would have hurt Australia and our competitiveness and the people dealing with the flow-on costs of the scheme and that could easily have further negative implications at least temporarily for the struggling ALP.
For an administration struggling with expectations, the mixed messaging and second backflip this month doesn’t bode well in trying to run consistent messaging in areas of public policy and that just makes the government look confused and scared.
By far the biggest damage will be to revenue and that will in turn make promises much harder to deliver, though maybe they’re not too worried about that given the chances that they’ll hold the purse-strings at the start of the floating price are slim. Oh, and the fact that the trading scheme might well not be there under a Liberal Government. But who knows, it’s certainly much, much harder to repeal now.